Automakers, analysts see declines in luxury sales in 2008

CHICAGO -- Automakers are introducing plenty of luxury vehicles at this year's Chicago Auto Show, from the $78,000 Yes! roadster to Porsche's performance-oriented Cayenne GTS.
But the models may be met by empty wallets. Analysts and some automakers predict luxury sales will fall this year as the country's economic woes put a pinch on high-end buyers. "Typically in a declining market, you usually don't see luxury vehicles drop off. The drop-off in luxury sales is at a rate much slower than the overall market, and that is because of the wealth factor," said Joe Barker, senior manager of North American vehicle sales forecasting for CSM Worldwide. "But in recent months it appears even the affluent car buyers are even pulling back a bit on auto purchases." Peter Schwarzenbauer, president and chief executive of Porsche Cars North America, said Thursday that Porsche has seen a downturn in U.S. luxury sales, particularly in the past two to three months, and believes the segment will have a tough time compared to 2007. Porsche's U.S. sales were up 1.4 percent in 2007, compared to a 3 percent decline in sales industrywide. "We are currently forecasting what we call internally a mild recession," Schwarzenbauer said at the Chicago Auto Show. "If it's a mild recession, we don't see a huge impact on our forecast. If we have something deeper, then we have to talk again." Luxury buyers are often resilient in the face of wider economic concerns, and 2007 sales bore that out. U.S. luxury sales were flat in 2007 even as the industry fell as a whole. But in January, sales of BMW, Ferrari, Lexus, Jaguar, Lincoln and Porsche vehicles all dropped, among others. Mercedes-Benz and Cadillac were among the few who bucked the trend, with both those brands reporting sales increases of 7 percent thanks to new vehicles. Although one month doesn't establish a trend, Jack Nerad, executive market analyst for Irvine, Calif.-based Kelley Blue Book, said it's likely recent stock market declines have given luxury car buyers the jitters. Downturns on Wall Street _ in this case caused by recession fears _ affect the higher-income customers who buy luxury vehicles, Nerad said. In addition, many of those buyers have seen their home values drop and adjustable rate mortgages go up, he said. Nerad expects the luxury vehicle slump to continue until the stock market bounces back. "It's not that these people don't necessarily have the money to buy. There is also the feeling that maybe this isn't the best day and I'll postpone my purchase for six months," Nerad said. Paul Taylor, chief economist for the National Automobile Dealers Association, said a federal stimulus package could reverse the stock market, but as long as stocks are down and the real estate market is soft _ particularly in large states like California and Florida _ luxury car sales will suffer. Another headache for European luxury makers is the weak U.S. dollar, which forces them to either take a loss or raise prices for European-made vehicles. Mark LaNeve, General Motors Corp.'s vice president for North American sales and marketing, said one reason Cadillac is doing well is that it's making cars in its home market, avoiding currency fluctuations. But he said GM's luxury Swedish Saab brand is feeling the pinch. A weak yen could actually work in favor of Japanese luxury makers. But Lexus spokesman Greg Thome said the brand is nevertheless expecting a tough year, particularly in the first six months. Thome said Lexus thinks sales will be flat or slightly up compared to 2007, when they were up 2 percent. Some automakers think they can profit from the malaise. Hyundai Motor Co. introduced its first luxury sedan, the Genesis, in Detroit last month. The Genesis will sell for just under $40,000 when it arrives on the U.S. market in June. John Krafcik, vice president of product development for Hyundai, said 3 in 10 consumers in a recent survey conducted for the automaker said they need a car this year and will choose a brand that's "value focused" instead of a premium brand. "It's one of the reasons we think we have an opportunity to grow this year in this market with cars like that one," Krafcik said at last month's Detroit auto show. Still other luxury makers insist the economic downturn won't affect luxury sales at all. "We are quite confident that at least the premium operations will be stable," Audi AG Chairman Rupert Stadler said last month in Detroit. "It could be different in the mass market." German-based Funke and Will AG, which makes the handcrafted Yes! roadsters, isn't altering its plan to introduce two coupes to the U.S. market this year: the $77,995 Roadster 3.2 and its $97,995 turbocharged version. "We don't see ourselves as a luxury car. It's a driving car," said Ingolf Hainish, the company's head of sales.

 

^^^ Trust me I know. lol

I also know what Ive been seeing. Hopefully it will last..... : /

 

Setting a flat price for a product across the board is not unheard of. 5 years ago I used to be an exporter of P&G Pringles, Unilever Vaseline Hand Lotion, and Mars Snickers and M&Ms. That market collapsed in 1998 when my suppliers from the UK, Denmark, and Taiwan were offering me the same exact price for products that used to cost more in the US!

In response to your 2nd statement, what a lot of people do not realize is that MB, Audi, Porsche, and all the other mfgs, they're main interest is to SELL AS MANY CARS AS POSSIBLE. They depend on dealerships from around the world to distribute their cars BUT they do not rely on them completely. Take a trip to Hong Kong, Hamburg, Singapore, and see how many cars they're exporting around the world. Better yet get a copy of Auto Motor und Sport (Germany's largest auto mag) and flip through the back pages. You will find brokers who can offer you fleets of cars for export. Where do you think these brokers are getting their cars? The brokers are approaching factories direct and placing 50-100 car orders per month and YES the MFGs are selling from their back door. So now why am I not ordering these cars in loads from the factory direct? I'd absolutely LOVE to but due to Porsche's higher pricing of cars outside the US and the Euro, it makes poor business sense! If Porsche decides to price their cars cheaper in South Africa, heck I am there.

 

No arguments here about what is being said but I have noticed in the past 2 months an alarming number of new Cayenne's on the road. I used to see 3 or 4 a week now I am seeing 3-4 a day. At my sons school alone I have seen 3 new Cayenne S's and several new V6's since the Holidays driven by parents.

 

By no means am I saying all Cayennes are sold for export. In Los Angeles there are also a few but compared to what you see at the ports, the ratio is more like 100 for export to 20 on the road each week!

 

I have a friend that exports high end SUVs to Russia, and he says Cayennes are the hottest car over there. They have to be 3 years or older to export over there.

 

Really? My clients are shipping brand new 2008s New and Demo'd.

 

 

Either I misunderstand this, or somehow 5 years ago was before 1998?

 

Wyatt, what I meant was since the market collapsed in 1998, I haven't been an importer for those products and my last trade was essentially 5 years ago.

 

It is amazing how popular this has become. My dad worked in Russia in the late 90's and would sent his own cars there no problem. Now that he is back in Moscow it has become a complete headache for him to get his car there.

But given that his car is worth literally 1.5 times as much in Russia it seems worth it.

And the Ukraine market for high end SUV's is insane, good luck with your venture.

 

Need an 04 CT with 29k miles for $60K.

 

Actually I am now looking at a 2004 Cayenne Turbo in blue prices at $45,900.

 

Again don't let dealers have you believe cars in Russia are 1.5 times the value as the cars are here. Do some research and you'll find it's the import duty that has driven the price of the car so high, not the car's value.

 

I know that. Just figured it was worth a shot. I see S's listed all day long for $45k and I am sure none of them are selling. It is a lot of vehicle for $45k and for that price I will drive mine into the ground.